Hello fellow trainer! As a data analyst and shiny hunting enthusiast, I‘m here to provide an in-depth explainer on the concept of "full odds" shinies in the Pokémon games. Strap in as we dive into the rarity, mechanics, and thrill of hunting for these ultra-rare random shinies.
Defining full odds
First, let‘s define what we mean by full odds. Put simply, a full odds shiny refers to a randomly encountered Pokémon with the base, unmodified shiny rate. This base rate varies between games, but is typically around 1 in 4096.
So if you just run around in the grass with no boosts or exploits, every Pokémon has a 1 in 4096 chance of appearing shiny. These are full odds shinies.
Any method that boosts the shiny rate like chaining, the Shiny Charm, or manipulating outbreaks would disqualify a shiny from being full odds. The term specifies that the odds were entirely up to chance.
Just how rare are full odds shinies?
I know game descriptions say shinies are "rare" – but with real numbers, we can see just how astronomically uncommon full odds shinies really are!
- 1 in 4096 means a 0.024% base shiny rate. That‘s 24 out of 100,000!
- For reference, your odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime are about 1 in 15,000.
- If you checked 4096 non-shiny Pokémon, there‘s still only a 63% chance of finding a shiny.
- At 2048 encounters, there‘s a 50% chance you won‘t have seen a shiny.
Here are some more sobering stats:
- The estimated odds of matching 5 numbers plus the Powerball in the lottery is 1 in 11.7 million.
- Your odds of being dealt a random royal flush in poker are 1 in 649,740.
- The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row are 1 in 1,048,576.
So yes, full odds shinies are exceptionally uncommon! This rarity is why getting one feels so special.
The psychology of the hunt
The 1 in 4096 shiny chance is applied individually to each encounter. So why can hunts take so ridiculously long when it‘s always the same flat rate?
Well, let‘s think about it probabilistically. Each check is an independent event – your past results don‘t affect the next try. So even after 10,000 encounters, your next attempt still has 1 in 4096 odds.
Our monkey brains don‘t really grasp true randomness though. We expect that eventually, the shiny "has" to show up. But that‘s not how probability works – there‘s no guarantee!
That disconnect is part of what makes the full odds hunt so mentally challenging. You have to find the determination to keep trying, even as the hunt drags on.
The longest hunts
To demonstrate just how crazy unlucky you can get, let‘s look at some of the longest documented full odds shiny hunts:
- The longest Gen 2 hunt took 65,535 encounters (the max possible) for a shiny Cyndaquil.
- A Destinies Collide streamer went 46,078 encounters before getting their target Shinx.
- The longest Gen 6 hunt, for a shiny Xerneas, spanned 36,431 encounters.
- A YouTube creator found their shiny Treecko after 21,277 restarts in Emerald.
These hunters had to persist through over 20x the expected odds. It‘s safe to say they earned those shinies!
Why hunt full odds?
After seeing those stats, you may be wondering – why would anyone willingly subject themselves to this without boosting their odds? What motivates people toFull odds shiny hunting appeals to certain personalities:
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Dedicated – They have the patience and determination to endure dry spells. Giving up is not in their nature.
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Purists – They prefer to "earn" their shiny the legit way. Using outbreaks feels like cheating to them.
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Perfectionists – They won‘t stop until they succeed, no matter how long it takes. Quitting is worse than failing.
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Thrill-seekers – They get a rush from beating astronomical odds. The bigger the risk, the bigger the reward.
Of course, the glorious moment when that shiny finally appears makes all the effort worthwhile. The bona fide full odds shiny represents a special achievement.
Should you try full odds hunting?
Full odds hunting definitely isn‘t for everyone. But it can be an immensely rewarding challenge if you have the mindset for it. Here are my tips if you want to attempt it:
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Make sure you genuinely enjoy the hunt itself, not just the outcome. The journey is more important than the destination.
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Be conservative with goals and expectations. A hunt could feasibly take weeks or months of dedicated searching.
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Accept that bad RNG happens. Getting unlucky isn‘t a failure on your part.
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Stay determined, but take breaks if you‘re burning out. You‘re in this for the long haul.
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Record your progress. This creates accountability and makes the eventual payoff more satisfying.
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Consider alternate targets if you despise your current hunt. Enjoyment is crucial for motivation.
The magic of full odds shinies
While boosted-odds methods have made shinies much more accessible, in my opinion, the full odds hunt captures something special.
Staring down wild odds and sticking it out entirely on faith requires a commitment beyond just wanting a palette swap. But if you can muster the willpower, finally encountering that 1 in 4,096 miracle makes the sun shine brighter.
So fellow hunters, I hope this overview has provided some insights into the world of full odds shinies. Keep chasing those rainbow Pokémon – your dedication will be rewarded someday! Let me know if you have any other questions.
Your pal,
Terry
