As someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports betting, I want to provide a comprehensive guide to demystify what all those numbers and odds formats mean. Whether you‘re a total beginner or a seasoned sports gambler, understanding how betting odds work is key to betting success.
Let‘s start with the basics:
What Do Plus and Minus Odds Mean?
You‘ll generally see betting odds presented with either a + or – sign in front of the number:
Positive odds – Indicated by the + sign, these show underdogs or bets less likely to happen, but ones that would pay out more money if you win. For example:
+700
+450
+290
Negative odds – Indicated by the – sign, these show the favorites or bets more likely to happen, but ones that pay out less money. For example:
-200
-550
-110
The numeric value indicates how much you could potentially win (in positive odds) or need to risk (in negative odds) for every $100 you bet.
So +700 odds mean for every $100 bet, you would profit $700 if you win. -200 odds mean you‘d need to bet $200 to win $100. Simple enough so far!
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
Betting odds actually represent the implied probability or likelihood of something happening. We can use the odds to calculate this:
Positive odds: Take the + number and divide it by that number plus 100.
+700 odds = 7 / (7 + 100) = 7% probability
Negative odds: Take the – number and divide it by that number plus 100.
-200 odds = 200 / (200 + 100) = 67% probability
The higher the odds, the lower the probability of that outcome occurring. This makes sense – if something is less likely to happen, you get paid more if you bet on it and are proven right!
Calculating Your Payouts
The potential payout on any bet can be calculated easily based on the odds:
For positive odds, take the odds number and multiply it by your bet amount.
Ex. $100 bet at +700 odds pays out $700 (700 x $100).
For negative odds, divide the odds number by 100, then divide your bet by that number.
Ex. $100 bet at -200 odds pays out $50 (200/100 = 2; $100 / 2 = $50 payout).
Let‘s look at how different odds would pay out on a $100 bet:
| Odds | Potential Payout |
|-200| $50 |
|+250| $250 |
|+500| $500 |
|+1100| $1100 |
As you can see, the bigger the underdog, the more you stand to win if they pull off the upset!
Point Spreads vs Moneylines
There are two main formats sportsbooks use to display odds:
Moneylines simply display the odds for who will win the game outright, without any point spread.
Point spreads even up the teams by giving the underdog a lead – visually denoted by the + and – signs. The favorite has to win by over the spread for bets on them to cash.
An example point spread:
New England Patriots -7 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles +7 (-110)
Here the Patriots have to beat the Eagles by over 7 points to cover the spread. The Eagles can lose by less than 7 or win outright.
Hedging Your Bets
One strategy sports gamblers use is called hedging – placing bets on both teams in a matchup. This guarantees you some profit if the game goes your way.
You can bet on the underdog with good odds to possibly win big, then make a smaller bet on the favorite to hedge your losses if they prevail. While hedging limits your profit ceiling, it‘s a safer approach.
Factors That Move the Betting Lines
Sportsbooks don‘t just set the odds and forget them. Lines will often shift in the lead-up to a game based on a variety of factors:
- Team performance trends
- Injuries and roster changes
- Public betting patterns
- Reports/rumors from team insiders
- Weather forecasts
- Emotional factors like rivalries
It‘s advantageous to watch line movements closely and jump on odds when there‘s value due to shifts.
The House Always Wins
Sportsbooks make their money by collecting their "vig" or commission off losing bets. Oddsmakers aim to set lines so that they take in roughly equal money on both sides of a bet.
If they can accomplish this, the books are guaranteed to make a profit on the vig from all the losing bets, regardless of the game‘s outcome.
By mastering the art of line setting, being quick to adjust odds, and keeping their commission, the sportsbooks are able to consistently earn profits.
Examples From My Own Betting Experience
I‘ll never forget watching the New York Giants pull off one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets ever against the previously undefeated Patriots back in 2008.
The Patriots closed as -600 favorites but the Giants ended up winning outright! Those who bet on the Giants cashed in big time given those +700 odds going into the game.
On the flip side, I learned my lesson with the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 49 against the Patriots. The Seahawks were -190 favorites and I thought it was easy money.
Unfortunately, they lost on a last minute interception at the goal line! This reinforced that you should never assume any outcome is guaranteed in sports.
The Bottom Line
Whether you‘re looking at NFL playoffs odds, March Madness lines, or any other sport, understanding what those numbers mean is crucial to betting success. Don‘t let those plus and minus signs intimidate you!
Hopefully this primer clearly explained how to interpret odds, convert them to probability, calculate payouts, and leverage that knowledge into smarter bets. Don‘t hesitate to reach out if you need any clarification or have additional questions on sports odds.
Now get out there and start winning some wagers!
